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The Weakening of the CB Capital Global Diffusion Index Suggests Lower Asset...
The Economist just published an article discussing the Baltic Dry Index (“BDI”) and its lack of usefulness as a global leading economic indicator. We know Goldman Sachs constructs its global leading...
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The Re-leveraging of Corporate America and the U.S. Stock Market
The U.S. stock market as of the end of 1Q 2015 is overvalued, overbought, and overleveraged. As we discussed in our weekly newsletters over the last couple of months, the S&P 500 is trading at its...
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Our Leading Indicators Still Suggest Lower Asset Prices
In our March 12, 2015 commentary (“The Weakening of the CB Capital Global Diffusion Index Suggests Lower Asset Prices“), we discussed the shortcomings of Goldman Sachs’ Global Leading Indicator (GLI)...
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Margin Debt Outstanding Remains High but Suggests an Oversold Market
A client said: “U.S. margin debt outstanding remains at a very high level; as such, I expect U.S. stocks to correct further.” We last discussed the overbought condition in U.S. stocks as measured by...
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Leading Indicators Suggest a Stabilization in Global Risk Asset Prices
Even as the vast majority of analysts stayed bullish on the global economy and global risk assets early last year, I began to turn bearish for a variety of reasons, including: 1) global liquidity, as...
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Strengthening the Global Banking System’s Weakest Link
As I discussed in my most recent newsletter (please email me to request a copy) and in my February 19, 2016 Forbes column (“Shares Of Global Banks Are Too Cheap To Ignore“), I remain constructive on...
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Leading Indicators Suggest Further Upside in Global Risk Asset Prices
Note: I know many of you reading this are either overweight cash or net short U.S. equities. Please don’t shoot the messenger: I am not personally biased to the upside – I am merely channeling what my...
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EU-Wide Stress Test Results Adding to Systemic Risk
As professional investors, we have been trained by the markets, the CFA Institute, and business school professors early on to avoid certain kinds of investments. Examples include scams such as Florida...
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